If there was “a game everyone was waiting for” outside of the national championship playoff, it was the New Year’s Day matchup of Alabama and Michigan in the Citrus Bowl.
Nick Saban vs. Jim Harbaugh. A favorite that probably would have qualified for the playoff if its star quarterback hadn’t been injured. A highly publicized underdog hoping to atone for underachieving in major litmus tests the past few seasons.
From a market perspective, Alabama received the bulk of betting action for days at a long-settled point spread of -7. Oddsmakers knew they’d ultimately have to accept one-sided exposure, or invite a lot of Michigan money into the fray at +7¹/₂ or higher. That’s dangerous because it probably turns the key number of seven into a loss rather than a push for sports books. Let’s see how key indicator stats paint the picture:
Alabama (-7¹/₂) vs. Michigan, 1 p.m., ABC
Alabama: 7th offense, 17th defense, 54th schedule, +16 turnover margin
Michigan: 68th offense, 7th defense, 12th schedule, +2 turnover margin,
The Crimson Tide has the much better total yardage composite, but it came against a softer schedule (according to Jeff Sagarin’s rankings at USA Today). The late-season change in quarterbacks from Tua Tagovailoa to Mac Jones could hinder their clear edge in ball protection. In his loss at Auburn, Jones threw two interceptions that were returned for touchdowns.
It should be noted Alabama outgained Auburn 515-354 on 6.7 to 5.4 yards-per-play in that heartbreaking, 48-45 road defeat. Auburn and Michigan rank similarly in various respected power ratings. Wednesday’s Citrus Bowl will be on a “neutral” field in SEC country (Orlando), where Jones should be less likely to make huge mistakes.
Michigan quarterback Shea Patterson is a transfer from Ole Miss in the SEC. There he seemed overmatched vs. quality. The stat rankings suggest he could have trouble consistently leading the Wolverines down the field.
Patterson and Michigan ended their regular season against playoff team Ohio State, which could provide a preview of what will happen against Alabama’s parade of blue-chip talent. The Wolverines were outgained 577-396 on 7.5 to 5.7 yards-per-play. They were just 2 of 13 on third-down tries, and an additional 0 of 2 on fourth-down tries.
- The case for Alabama: Jones had plenty of time to work out the kinks, which will allow the Crimson Tide to roll up a big yardage advantage and name the score. Michigan is more hype than quality under Harbaugh and will be embarrassed once again on both sides of the ball.
- The case for Michigan: There’s a chance Alabama will come in flat, having failed to qualify for a playoff spot. If that happens, and Jones stays mistake-prone, the Wolverines can spring an upset. Handicappers must focus on these questions. Will Alabama bring peak intensity? Can Jones play a relatively clean game in a bowl atmosphere? Is the point spread properly reflecting those complex dynamics?
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January 01, 2020 at 09:01PM
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All angles to consider when betting Alabama-Michigan game - New York Post
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